While this spring hasn’t exactly sparked a booming real estate season—home sales remain close to a 30-year low—there are some encouraging signs that activity may be picking up, especially when it comes to mortgage demand.
According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS®, “The latest application data is clearly showing some positive encouragement.”
And the numbers back that up. For the week ending June 6, mortgage applications were up 20% compared to the same time last year, based on new data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. What’s more impressive? That increase came even as rates remained relatively steady.
“Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economy, home buyers seem to be taking advantage of loosening housing inventory in certain markets,” says Joel Kan, deputy chief economist at MBA.
In fact, housing inventory has climbed 20% year over year. However, that rise in listings hasn’t yet translated into a noticeable increase in closed home sales across the country—at least not yet.
The Key: Mortgage Rates
One of the biggest drivers remains mortgage rates. Yun points out that all eyes are on inflation trends and what the Federal Reserve decides to do next with its benchmark rate. If rates dip—even slightly, to around 6.5%—he believes that could ignite a real shift in buyer activity, potentially increasing sales by up to 10%.
“Even small, incremental changes [in mortgage rates], I think, will bring more buyers,” Yun adds.
Where Mortgage Rates Stand Now
Mortgage rates have been relatively steady for several months—and this past week followed that same pattern.
“Mortgage rates have moved within a narrow range for the past few months—and this week is no different,” says Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac. Still, he adds, “Rate stability, improving inventory, and slower house price growth are an encouraging combination as we celebrate National Homeownership Month.”
Here’s where rates stood as of the week ending June 12, according to Freddie Mac:
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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: 6.84% (down slightly from 6.85% the week before; 6.95% a year ago)
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15-year fixed-rate mortgage: 5.97% (down from 5.99% the previous week; 6.17% a year ago)
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, the combination of increased inventory and slightly more favorable rates may open up new opportunities—especially in markets where competition is softening. For sellers, understanding these dynamics can help in pricing strategies and setting expectations.
As the summer real estate season heats up, all eyes will be on mortgage rates, inventory trends, and how buyers respond to these subtle but important shifts.
Want to know how these changes could affect your local market? Reach out—I’m here to help you navigate what’s next.
Want more help. Let us share our many years of experience with you.
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